1. Kagame is in a deep crisis and would like to give the impression to Rwandans and the international community that things are changing.
2. Kagame is responding to pressure f from pro-democracy voices, notably Rwanda National Congress (RNC), FDU-Inkingi and other pro-democracy voices.
3. Aloysea Inyumba is being retrieved from a long period of marginalization, as a reward for her recent redeployment to counter RNC and lure Hutu into Kagame's RPF fold. Her European trip has paid her handsomely. She is on her way to the United States to pay more dues to Kagame's reward.
4. Dr. Charles Murigande, now to be posted to Japan as ambassador, begins his final journey to complete retrenchment after a long period of marginalisation. The Burundi factor in RPF politics that has saved Murigande before no longer matters to Kagame, who now must punish those who are not "adequately" loyal even among the Tutsi.
5. Claver Gatete, formerly ambassador to UK ( during which tenure he oversaw Kagame"s financial misdemeanors in that country) and Vice Governor at Central Bank, now elevated to Governor Central Bank. With the Finance Minister John Rwangombwa, the two are Kagame's most obedient servants who will help in continuing to siphon off public resources into Kagame's pockets.
6. Vincent Karega, now posted to South Africa as ambassador, has been chosen to specifically deal with Gen. Kayumba and Col. Karegeya ( read this as a mission to complete a previously abortive operation to assassinate both). He has no diplomatic skills to mend diplomatic relations between SA and Rwanda, now at their lowest. The most important credential he has is that he will execute orders unquestioningly.
7. Solina Nyirahabimana, now posted to Switzerland as Ambassador, is being deployed to sweet-talk Hutu into RPF, and to deal with the growing opposition to the Kigali regime in Europe, notably from RNC and FDU-Inkingi and other pro-democracy voices.
8. It does not matter that Kagame has included Hutu and women to put on a facade of an ethnically balanced and gender sensitive government. Rwanda remains a police secretive state, firmly in the hands of a violent and corrupt dictator who marginalises mainly the Hutu, as well as Tutsi and Twa. The structure of power remains intact.
9. Ideas are a very powerful force, just as the power of organised and mobilized citizens are a potent force whose time has come. It has been a few months since Rwanda Briefing was written, and RNC was born. Clearly, ideas about a shared future among Rwandans ( Hutu, Tutsi, and Twa), anchored on truth telling, justice for all, the rule of law, freedom, democracy and sustainable prosperity for all has thrown Kagame and the state he has criminalised into panic. Now resources ( money, time, talent..) are being squandered left and right to stop the unstoppable---Rwanda's match to freedom!
10. Finally, the Prime Minister Bernard Makuza has been handed a sweet formality to sign the statement on the cabinet reshuffle, that he rarely, if ever, has anything to do with! Kagame is trying to deceive Rwandans that the formal government works. The truth is that his informal network of a few Tutsi military officers and RPF civilian cadres run the secret state behind the scene. Still, Makuza must be grateful that this small token has finally been extended to him thanks to the efforts of pro-democracy voices.
What is needed in Rwanda is not shuffling chairs on the sinking Kagame-RPF ship. Rwandans need to work together to prevent their motherland from sinking into more civil war and bloodshed, and chat a new direction in durable peace and freedom. Kagame can deceive some people, for some time. But he cannot deceive us all for all the time.
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